Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
